Data Suggests 2025 Could See Lower eCommerce Air Freight Volumes

Although air freight volumes experienced a minor surge in January after the holiday slump, data indicates that e-commerce air cargo volumes could fall through the rest of the year. Techtronic Industries VP of Global Logistics Alan McTaggart says ocean freight volumes could be particularly affected due to the Suez Canal’s likely reuse, high retail inventories, and surging capacity in 2025.

Speaking at the Freight Buyers Club, McTaggart predicted a stability that will cool down freight rates, making 2025 especially attractive for buyers. Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy says the fact that U.S. importers are building up their retail inventory in excess rates indicates that they are preparing themselves for American tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S.

This trend of accumulating buffer stock has also endured since the coronavirus pandemic threw global commerce into disarray. Since the country’s inventory-to-sales ratio grew steadily in 2024, the increase in inventory couldn’t have been caused by an equal rise in sales.

According to Murphy, this indicates reduced demand for American container imports, which would result in importers drawing down inventory from before the tariffs were passed and contribute to a drop in freight rates. He notes that rates will fall even further if shipping traffic steadily returns to the Suez Canal route.

Quoting data from WorldACD, Murphy said that airfreight tonnages have recovered from their Christmas slump (-35% in December) and went up by 29% in the second week of the year and 8% on week 3. Contract and spot global airfreight rates, on the other hand, were relatively flat through the holiday season and are currently 7% higher than in 2024. Furthermore, spot rates fell by 3% week on week but have now increased by 16% from last year.

Even so, Murphy says some executives in the air cargo segment have raised concerns over the steep fall in cargo from the Asia Pacific to the rest of the world since tonnages peaked in mid-December 2024. E-commerce cargo and freight heading to Europe were especially affected by the drop. However, the analyst notes that the post-winter decline in 2025 hasn’t been greater than the winter decline in the previous year, as per WorldACD analysis.

The analysis also shows that while Asia-Pacific Europe had recovered to week 48, 49, and 50 levels by the week of the year 2024, the regions were still 20% under by the same time period in 2025. E-commerce will play a critical role in air freight volumes this year as they adopt an ocean-to-air model that will see Asia-Pacific exports unlock extra freight capacity by exporting to Asian ports such as Vietnam, Singapore, and Korea.

Major players in the e-commerce field, such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) will have to put on their creative hats and find ways to sustain their growth even when airfreight volumes are projected to reduce this year.

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